UPDATE 08-07-2010
As all should know by now. They finally shut in the well. They now have tested long enough to know that there is nothing wrong with well integrity as I predicted would be the case. The currant plan going forward is to do a static kill on the well followed up with a bottom kill and cement job. Which has sealed the well up forever. I have a two fold problem with that. It goes like this. You may remember that early on in this disaster I was pretty upset about the fact that I had concluded that because nothing that they had attempted in the way of stopping the leak would work because they were all nonsensical plans and I stated that they were doing everything they could to keep from causing any harm to the well as they had plans to save it. The fact the the BP officials adopted the failed IKSTOK spill containment playbook supports my contention. Well all that changed when BP donated the net profits that may accrue out of the MCcondo 252 # 1 well to the "WILDLIFE HABITAT ACCOUNT". The minute they did that they shot themselves in the foot. Ask yourself this question. Why would they make such a gesture if they knew that it would have absolutely no chance of ever making a dime in profits? Up until that moment they knew as well as I that there was nothing wrong with that well. Furthermore I find it almost laughable watching BP's COO Doug Sutter in two different press interviews today 07-08-2010 when asked about what plans BP had going forward regarding the two relief wells fall all over himself trying to play down BP's intent to take the relief wells to production. stating how “IT'S ALWAYS BEEN OUR INTENTION TO PLUG AND ABANDON THE MC252#1 WELL” How can you hope to make any kind of profits from a well that you always intended to plug and abandon? If your intention was to plug and abandon. Why bother giving the well to the people? You just can't have it both ways BP. It's been stated, that well cost 1.2 billion dollars to drill. Why would you throw that money away when spending another million would save the well.? There is an answer to that question. It goes something like this. While the explosion fire and sinking of the Horizon was unanticipated and caught the BP bunch with their pants down. The decisions they made afterwords pretty should show to the world and the rest of drilling industry at large one very simple truth. You don't let college educated
businessmen, actuaries, ceo's and coo's make the decisions in an emergency such as this one. You use the talents and knowledge of your best drillers and tool pushers to fix things like this. A good pusher or driller would have been run off were they to have chosen the failed IKSTOK blueprints. They would have gone to the Best Practices Binder and set in motion the installation of the valves required to shut in that well at the outset of this mess. The reason they would have done that is because it's the roughnecks drillers and pushers that create the “Best Practices Binder” And they know what's in it. They also know what is in the JSA file folder as they create those as well. And that brings us back to the current state of affairs. As far as I am concerned those of you people that were in the decision making tier of this fiasco need consult with a criminal attorney. Why you ask? The answer is a simple as this. Because you chose to waste days, weeks, and months on proceeding thru all four parts of the adopted IKSTOK containment playbook. Untold, unnecessary damage was done not only to the people and eco systems of the Gulf of Mexico. You also attacked the mental well being of a major part of the citizens of this planet. Me included. And in one case the unnecessary damage to the gulf caused a man to take out a pistol and end his own life. Here in California they call that “Involuntary Manslaughter”
And to add insult to injury you have fucked the American people out of what appeared at the time the only non greedy thing that could have been derived from this disaster by destroying that well with cement. Should you take exception to that try this on for size. Donate one of the two remaining holes to that same fund. I'm sure there would be no problem getting to finish them if you did that. Show us what your made of. I dare ya. I didn't think so.
Proceeding on with the bottom kill is rubbish and unnecessary. But because they have shot themselves in the other foot by making Admiral Allen and all those scientists and professors believe that doing all that is necessary to make sure that well is shut in forever. It's already shut in forever. When you hear words like “RUPTURED WELL” and so on in news reports. Where do those descriptors come from? Like our money. They are just made up and plucked out of thin air. Until BP pumped cement into that hole which has drill pipe still in it. There was nothing wrong with that hole that four or five days worth of work wouldn't have fixed. Namely just the removal of that leftover drill pipe and a bottoms up sweep. That just means flushing any sand, rocks etc out of the hole by circulating mud .which would also remove any that may have settled back to bottom once they shut the well in. The fact that the well flowed as it did and they were able to push the oil and gas back down into the reserve also eliminates the the excuse for not going after the drill pipe because it might be stuck. Everything that came out of that hole had to pass by and thru that leftover pipe. Which means the six or ten feet of well bore below where the final casing string ended was also nice and clean and unrestricted.
Some people scoffed at me when I stated in my video that it was all about the "RELIEF WELLS" I was right as rain. And here is why I say that. Those that have followed this event closely will have noticed that in the beginning when the subject of killing the MC252#1 Was talked about you never heard the statements or words like "SEALING IT UP FOREVER" OR "KILLING WITH CEMENT SO THAT IT'S SHUT IN FOREVER" ETC. ETC. The original plan was to drill into the reserve and start producing the well and thereby bleeding off the pressure that was driving the offending well. That then morphed into. We are going to intercept the hole at the bottom and pump heavy mud in from the bottom until enough got into the well to hold down the oil and gas and thus kill the well.. Words like cement and forever in the same sentence didn't show up until after BP gave the net proceeds from MC252#1 to the American people in the form of that habitat fund. How generous was that I ask you? Well lets see. First it's now pretty much a forgone conclusion that a lot of the over hyped pressure that the well displayed early on has in fact diminished. Which means two things. One the well may not be quite the glory hole it was said to be. And two. Because BP gave away any possible profits it might generate. That well now is in direct competition with the other two they hope to take to production. One doesn't have to be the brightest kid on the block to figure out that now after all this time. We hear words like "KILL THE WELL FOREVER WITH CEMENT" and all the other ways they say the same thing that it's now to BP's advantage to do just that. How fucking sad. Especially when now that the well is properly shut in there is no reason to kill the well forever because there is nothing wrong with it that couldn't be fixed in less than 5 days. This is all it would take. First they have to do the "STATIC KILL" with heavy mud. Once that is done they can open the well back up and drop in a drill string with an overshot fishing tool attached instead of a drill bit and retrieve the drill pipe that was left in the hole at the time the explosion happened. Once that is done they go back in the hole with a drill bit and do what is known as bottoms up sweep. Simply means flush out and unwanted stuff that may have gotten into the well as it was flowing. Rocks, sand etc. At that point Halliburton gets to do what they wanted to do In the First place before over ruled by the company man install the required plugs. Once that's done The drill rig pulls off the BOP and heads off to the next well they are going to drill and a production rig comes in and completes the well properly. And the Wild life fund would actually wind up with a bunch of money in it for future use. Unfortunately that will not happen because BP has Admiral Allen convinced that the well needs to be killed forever. Which is simply Bullshit. One really can't blame BP too much as this mess has really cost them. One can almost feel sorry for them.. NOT!. There is no reason to destroy a perfectly good well now that they have got it shut in. Other than BP not wanting really to be as GENEROUS as that good will offering they made implied. Unless this gets to Ad. Allen, the Prez or somebody else with power to stop the cementing in of that well. on Monday. It will be too late. Simply because once they pump in cement and that drill pipe is left downhole that well will be done forever. Cement you can drill thru. Drill pipe and "BHA", means "Bottom Hole Assembly", you can not.
FROM HERE DOWN ARE PREVIOUS POSTS AND UPDATES
CHANGING OUT BLOW OUT PREVENTION EQUIPMENT IS DONE ROUTINELY. THE ONLY THING DIFFERENT IN THIS CASE IS THAT THE WELL IS COMING AT THEM. THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF OFF SHORE WELLS. AND BOP HAS TO BE SERVICED LIKE ANY OTHER MACHINERY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ALL THE WELLS THAT SADDAM SET ON FIRE HAD TO HAVE NEW VALVES ETC. INSTALLED. THE WELLS WERE COMING AT THEM THERE TOO. THE ABOVE GROUND ENVIRONMENT WAS EXTREMELY MORE DANGEROUS BECAUSE A SPARK WOULD KILL ANYONE IN THE VICINITY. NOT SO UNDER WATER.WHAT MAKES MORE SENSE TO YOU? GET EVERYTHING READY AND IN PLACE. THEN . UNBOLT THE DAMAGED RISER PIPES ADAPTER FLANGE FROM THE TOP BOP FLANGE. THEN LOWER SPOOL/VALVE ASSEMBLY WITH VALVES OPEN SO THE OIL AND GAS COMING CAN PASS ON THRU ALLOWING INSTALLATION OF ASSEMBLY. THEN CLOSING IN THE WELL COMPLETELY. DO THE MATH. SIX OR SEVEN HOURS OF WIDE OPEN FLOW INTO THE OCEAN. OR 2 OR 3 MONTHS AT THE CURRENT RATE OF OIL AND GAS DISCHARGING INTO OUR OCEAN. ONE ALSO MUST REALIZE THAT ALL THE STUFF THEY ARE DOING ON THE SURFACE AS AN ADAPTATION TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT CONTRAPTION IS BOTH UNNECESSARY AS WELL AS DANGEROUS. FINALLY ONE HAS TO REMEMBER THAT SHOULD A BIG STORM COME. THEY WILL HAVE TO DISCONNECT AND RUN FOR COVER. WHICH WILL ADD DAYS IF NOT WEEKS TO UNCHECKED OIL AND GAS DISCHARGE INTO THE SEA. THAT IS NOT TOLERABLE. IF YOU READ THIS AND AGREE. PLEASE COPY AND FORWARD TO EVERYONE, BP OFFICIALS HAVE TO KNOW THAT SOONER OR LATER QUESTIONS AS TO WHY THE ABOVE SOLUTION WAS NOT UTILIZED WITH IN THE WEEK FOLLOWING THE EXPLOSION WILL BE RAISED.
When they cut the damaged riser pipe out of the way. "ALL" of the nuts and bolts that secure the riser pipes "ADAPTER FLANGE. To the top BOP FLANGE, were exposed, and now completely accessible.
So what does this mean? It means that there was absolutely not one single reason why they should have proceeded on with their latest failed invention.!! That is still as I write this, update, barfing into our ocean. It means that this leak could have been SHUT IN within 24 hours of that time, had they chose to do it the right way. It's like this. There are multiple devices that contribute to the make up the "Blow Out Prevention Equipment". There are many configurations. That, when combined are referred to as. "THE STACK" In essence most all can be thought of as a type of valve. Except one. In an emergency it's purpose is to cut off the drill pipe so the the valves above it can then be closed. Thus making it possible to shut in the well. The other types used are PIPE RAMS, BLIND RAMS, ANNULARS, CHOKE TYPES AND GATE VALVES. When needed and there is drill pipe in the hole both the Annular and the Pipe Rams can be closed and will seal around the pipe and close in the well. If no drill pipe. Then the Blind Rams are used. Usually two different valve control systems are used, and generally with multiple locations to activate the valves. System one is hydraulic fluids under high pressure. System two is primarily for backup. Normally used if system one fails, and is Nitrogen stored in high pressure cylinders, or bottles as they are called. It should be noted. That because of where they were in the well completion process. No drill pipe should have been left in the hole. I did however on two different occasions hear somebody talking about the drill pipe being partially responsible for the diamond saw blade issues. I'll allow for both possibilities. I'm thinking it was just a semantics problem.
FOLLIES IN THE GULF
Brought to you by British Petroleum
ACT ONE
During the course of a deep water well completion, Somethings amiss. The casing has been landed and the cement has been pumped down the hole to seal the outside of the well casing to the well bore. An alarm sounds. Oh no! Were taking a kick. "Shut in the well" somebody yells out. Floor hands start running to their assigned locations as practiced many times in safety drills. Each having a job to perform should the need arise. Somethings wrong!! Too late..An oil and gas mixture has made it's way to the rig floor and found a spark. 11 hands are missing. The remaining people are told to abandon the rig. Fortunately there happens to be a ship there taking on drilling fluids to be transferred to another location for future use. All remaining personnel are transported to safety. After almost two days of futile attempts to bring the raging fire under control. The massive drilling platform topples over and sinks. It now rests some distance away from the well hole it was positioned above, and the riser pipe that connected it to the well has torn away, and is spewing oil and gas from at least three locations. One flow is atop the Blowout Prevention Equipment. The other two further away from the well head, where the riser was torn open. This is not good. The call goes out. A massive mobilization begins. The Coast Guard, high up company officials, state, local, and federal officials converge on the Gulf area. As well as the media. A Disaster response web site gets thrown up. Volunteers start arriving. Hopes are high.
Then the govt. shuts down some commercial fishing areas. Which will in many cases be the proverbial straw to those that have not recovered from Katrina and or the current economic train wreck. Congress begins hearings. The primary actors are summoned to Washington D.C. Where they then sit around and blame each other. Providing drama and comic relief for some of us. Angst and dismay for others.
B.P. Officials announce they have a plan to slow and or maybe even stop the pollution of one of the spills by capturing the oil/gas with the use of the, "upside down funnel dome device". This device they said had worked in the past. But never at depths of 5000 plus feet. They then hastened to add that, "Were not sure if it would work". Also stated at the same news briefing, was an approximate time line required to finish repairs, modifications, and then transport of the device to location. The plan was to lower this device to the seabed, and cover one of the flows in the mangled up riser pipe, that was away from the wellhead. They would then attach a riser pipe to the top of the device, and rely on the gas and oils lighter than water property's to create an upward flow. Which would eventually result in its capture and placement into an awaiting tanker on the surface. It was a good show. The majority of people bought into it, and maybe some slept a little better for a couple of weeks. And that's o.k.. But alas. Mother nature stepped in and said, "nope, not gonna happen." and clogged the riser pipe with a gas hydrates combination, which by the way is a bomb looking for a match unto itself. The net result of that was officials and rig hands alike. Could all breathe easier now, knowing they were not going be working in the very same environment, that blew up TransOcean's rig in the first place. That said. There still needed to be some kind of activity that would indicate somebody was doing something that would fix this problem. So they went through the motions anyway. When they held the press conference to announce defeat. They advised that the next 48 hours would be spent devising another plan. And noted any suggestions coming their way, via the "Spill Response Site". Would be evaluated.
END OF ACT ONE.
ACT TWO
While everything mentioned above was taking place. Some interesting behind the scenes processes were also transpiring. Most notable would be the fast tracking and granting of permissions to launch two additional holes immediately. When this news was announced to the general public. The stated purpose was that if none of the plans to stop the flows were successful. They would hit the zone and begin producing the reserve in order to bleed off the pressure that was driving the offending well. The term they used was "Relief Holes". B.P. Officials requested one. The US GOVT. insisted on two. Redundancy was the reasoning. There are a couple of problems with that notion The first being that should everything go as planned, and no serious hiccups are encountered along the way. The time line for completion would be sometime in august. If hole No1 is still puking death and destruction into our precious ocean at that time. You might as well go ahead and stick a fork in it. Because by that time, we will all be floating in oil. For those of you that have no knowledge of the way of things in the oil field. It's common for some wells to maintain high internal pressures for years. , Even with many additional holes all tapping the same reserve. It should also be noted that while the processes that started off the creation of the natural gas and crude oil happened eons ago. Those processes continue on to this day. Think fermentation, This particular well is producing both natural gas and oil, and now 40 plus days into this mess. The pressure still shows no signs of weakening.
The second problem I have with the above stated notion is that while hearings are taking place in D.C. And accusations of poor work ethics or non performance are leveled at federal employees, regarding authorizations. One has to wonder why two more holes are being drilled as we speak, into the very same high pressure, high volume zone, that proved to be unmanageable in the first place. "WITHOUT A PLAN TO FIX THIS KIND OF A PROBLEM IF ENCOUNTERED AGAIN". Would it not be plausible for one to conclude that if such a plan existed the directors of this production would adopt it to resolve the currant crisis? How often have good old fashioned, reasoned, common sense, thought processes been sidelined? In favor of knee jerk, emotionally charged, reactionary decisions, which have almost always come back to bite us on the ass. Do we need another leaking hole to compound our problems. Bad things are said to come in three's. Lets do a count. Number 1. Volcano up north. Not behaving as historic records say it should be. While it arrived pretty much right on time. it's now 180 degrees out on its shutting down cycle. Then we have the currant gulf mess. Can we afford a third?
INTERMISSION
While you were away getting some popcorn etc. B.P. officials held a press briefing and notified us that they were using a chemical designed to break up the oil in order prevent it from reaching the surface and causing harm to the local wild life habitat. This product would cause the oil to fall harmlessly to the seabed where over time, micro organisms would make it go away by eating it. Does any part of the previous statement seem logical to you? While trying to prevent damage on the surface to fisheries and wild life habitat is a noble idea. We can at least clean that up and restore it, even if it takes decades. To attack our food chain in the womb is madness. How do they propose to clean up and fix the birth place of the oceans food chain? When it's over 5000 feet under water and hundreds of square miles in scope.
They then went on to advise us about the plan called "THE INSERTION". Well it's about time. Everyone knows you can't make a good movie without some sex involved. So what they did was put together, yet another riser type pipe, with a 90 degree bend at the bottom, and a short additional length of pipe extending out from the bend. This pipe was smaller in diameter than the damaged riser laying on the sea floor. Then using one of the ROV'S on location, they guided it into the leaking riser, and viola. A new world record set. "Robot Assisted Sex" at 5000 feet below sea level. Life sure is grand. A press briefing followed, and we were advised that because of pressure related issues. Lady riser was not appreciating Lord risers intrusion and pushed him out. Feeling rejected Lord riser rested and after awhile resolved to have another go at her. "Success" :). The observers on the surface are all happy now. They have now tasted, while limited in scope the thrill of victory. There was actually oil and gas making it's way to the surface and being removed from the water. But alas once again mother nature stepped in and said. We can't allow more loss of life here, and risk another explosion. Whereby using the same tactic as before. She caused the riser pipe to seal shut with the methane/ice combo. Having tasted victory, The directors and producers of this soon to be hit video on Youtube. Feeling the heat from high places brought about by the damage being caused, by over 30 days of seeming impotence. Rolled out the "TOP KILL" abomination. After all. The show must still go on. When I heard the details of this plan. I sat in shock for over an hour. Then the bells went off. The light bulbs lit up, and reality walked up and socked me in the nose. I got it. I understood why nothing they had attempted had even a remote chance of working.
"THE GRAND FINALLY"
There is an old adage that goes something like this.
“IF YOU CAN'T DAZZLE THEM WITH BRILLIANCE.
BAFFLE THEM WITH BULLSHIT”
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Having spent the last eight years of my working career in the oil fields. The last three, specializing in well completion and production services. I, upon seeing that drilling platform explode knew instantly that this was serious. As time went by and the details of what happened emerged and without even having to see the news videos. I knew the firefighting attempts were in vain, and the rig was going to sink. At that time there was still speculation that an attempt was made to shut in the well. Had that happened the fire would have run out of fuel, and petered out long before doing enough damage to sink the rig. I knew it was just a matter of time. At that moment I started formulating a plan to stop the leak that loomed on the horizon. With data provided by the press. Info gathered by reporters of people like the skipper of the mud transport ship. And rig hands that reported lost circulation problems with the hole. As well as the official news briefings. I was able to figure out where they were in the well completion process. Armed with good picture of the overall situation. A simple, quick, temporary solution, came to mind. Only one sentence required a modification After the rig sank. I spent the next two days researching the hardware and materials, that would be required. Those additions were made to the document, and I set about trying to get it to one of the directors running the show down there in the gulf. Stupid me. What was I thinking? Once again, beat up by my own idealistic, optimistic, attitudes, something that should have been simple, has now proven to be quite a challenge. I am pretty even keeled, and for the most part very hard to anger. When I went to the B.P. Oil Spill Response website, and clicked the, "submit suggestions button", to upload my solution. I was awakened by another sock to my nose. Now I'm getting mad. I discovered that my four page, well researched document, with pictures embedded, instructions with finite attention paid to detail, covering every aspect the process could not be uploaded to that, crippled, limited, worthless site. Because it exceeded the "200" word max limit. And needless to say. There was no "UPLOAD A PICTURE" or "ATTACH A FILE" button. That should have gave me a clue as to how serious they are about fixing this problem. I missed it tho and undaunted backed out of the site believing that I could obtain a real email address, for somebody that was even close to somebody in charge. Well to reduce the diatribe and get to the info you really need. Suffice it to say that as of this moment 5:30 am Sunday morning May 30th 2010 and after quite literally, hundreds of emails sent out to anybody I felt was even remotely connected to the management of this mess in the gulf.. I have yet to receive any kind response or indication that my solution has reached them. So now onto the ugly truth.
Conclusion number one.
Not one single plan they have put into motion would have impaired their ability to salvage the offending hole.
In addition. As of this posting. 05-31-2010. The two currant plans they are going to attempt are also without bite and destined to fail. Plan A, cut the damaged riser pipe at the top of the BOP where it is bent over and by no reasonable means perfectly round. Then pull it out of the way. They will then lower down a new revised smaller version of the previous "DOME" Type device that failed. Attach it to the top of the BOP, and let the well pump itself into an awaiting tanker on the surface. In a perfect world this could be done. 5000 below sea level, with 1400 plus pounds per square inch of pressure, pushing oil and gas out of the very location they have to make that cut, I would give a five percent chance of success to. In the event they make that happen. The next phase is also, while possible, loaded with logistical problems. The cut could be no more than a few inches above the BOP flange surface. It would also have to be centered, so as not to interfere with the mating and securing to of the new capping device. Then one has to consider both the visibility issues, as well as the fact that all this is being done remotely with robotics and cameras. While doable, daunting would be an understatement.
Plan B of solutions on the drawing board, destined for implementation. Same as plan A. But instead of installing the capturing device. A secondary BOP would be attached atop the broken one. Then activated from the surface to close in the well. Same logistical problems as plan A. With the exception that it will be easier to get it centered over flowing hole, and attached to the existing one, due to it's mass and weight. Everything done and projected to date speaks to the heart of the matter. There are simple, quick, and even cheap ways that could have, and should have, been employed to bring this disaster to an end. They know of these options. But will not even mention any of them. Why you ask? Because all would cause enough damage to the hole. To negate their reckless ambitions to save it. All one needs to do is crunch the numbers. As of 05-30-2010. 970 million in currant mitigation costs. Lets for arguments sake be liberal and project 5 billion more for lawsuits cleanup and other expenses. Add another just for good measure. Then include1 billion already spent drilling this hole. So lets call it 10 billion dollars in the red. If in fact this does drag out until August. It will probably be safe to add another billion per month in related costs. Eco damage, cleanup, response, etc. Now lets look at the flip side. First you need to understand that directional drilling is very accurate these days. They can hit the a target within inches. So by stalling long enough to allow the first of the rigs headed for that target to get there, and install a plug, They can save the hole. One might consider it a wash. But not so. The minute that flow is stopped. B.P. will set about replacing the broken Blowout Prevention Equipment. Rig no.2 will pull back far enough to change drilling direction and hit the desired zone. Well completion will happen and the process will work it's way to production. Rig 3 will alter course and hit the zone and completion and production will be the end result. So what does this mean? It means that by around mid September they will have not one, but three holes producing around 25 or 30 thousand barrels or more a day EACH. Do The math. Don't forget to calculate the bonus they got by having two of those holes already in production at least six months before it could have happened under the normal jump thru all the hoops circumstances. And last but not least. Add to the plus tally the profits from the "Natural Gas" that also appears abundant in this reserve. For those that would not know it's common to get both resources from the same well. They hit the jackpot on this one. It sure is a wonderful world huh?
And finally I get to where insult is added to injury.
The eye opener.---> "TOP KILL" <---wrong name... right name--->BOTTOM KILL<--- They knew without a doubt that there was not chance in hell that it would do anything positive. It's quite simple to understand. Located on the sides of the non working BOP are two inlet ports. with "FITTINGS "or "Pipe Flanges".. If, and only if, the well is "SHUT IN" Will they do as their name suggests and kill or choke off the well. If the gas and oil is stationary, the heavy mud will sink to the bottom, pile up and prevent anything below it from rising. Try this. Go out into your yard. and remove the nozzle from your garden hose. Then turn on the water. Which by the way will give you at best, 60 pounds per square inch of pressure. Hold the hose out in front of you pointed upward and try to get something even as heavy as a lead bullet, a small fishing sinker, or perhaps even a small solid gold nugget to fall down into the hose, while that water is running. It's not rocket science. Did you know that a drilling company even digging a hole on dry land can be heavily fined by the govt. for allowing a drilling fluids spill of only a few barrels to hit the ground. Drilling fluids are mixtures of assorted minerals that are turned into a mud like consistency with diesel fuel. Of recent years there has been an effort to switch to biodegradable substitutes. We can hope that was the case here. "The show must go on" I am still having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that, they went ahead with that madness and actually pumped 30 thousand plus barrels of drilling fluids into what is essentially a well lubricated wide open blowout
preventer, knowing in advance that it would get pushed right back out the top, to the nearest opening and directly into our already trashed ocean. It's got me so pissed off. I want to kick the nearest tree or go break something. That is just so wrong. When the dust settles BRITISH PETROLEUM will have more than just a black eye. In the hopes that some BP official might actually read this Rant, That which is typed below is for you!!
I AM REALLY PISSED OFF. YOU COULD HAVE STOPPED THIS IN A WEEK. WHY HAVE YOU LET THIS CONTINUE? WHAT ARE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NOT BEING TOLD? INQUIRING MINDS WANT TO KNOW.
.
IF THE CONCLUSIONS DRAWN ON OBSERVATIONS OF THAT WHICH HAS TAKEN PLACE TO DATE ARE IN ERROR. THE ONLY OTHER CONCLUSION THAT AFTER SIMPLE GREED IS REMOVED FROM THE EQUATION IS THAT EVEN DARKER FORCES ARE IN PLAY HERE.
SEE BELOW
It is my considered opinion that from the outset, everything resting on the seabed should have been declared and treated like a crime scene. Since questions about the integrity of the BOP have
been raised. Everything connected to it is evidence. That includes the controls that
are still attached to the submerged drilling platform. As well as the systems
employed to activate the various parts of the BOP. Since it appears
that none of the individual parts worked. Only three
possibilities are left. Either they were not
activated, everything failed at once,
and/or operator error. I
would have you
consider the following
Current state of our economy
All current drilling operations halted.
All applications for new drill permits on hold.
What caused the supposedly bullet proof BOP to fail?
Why were the people who's duties require their presence on
the rig floor during what is one of the most critical processes. Absent?
Why did the company man deviate from the government approved drilling plan?
Despite arguments from Rig manager and Halliburton regarding the setting of a plug.
IT APPEARS, THIS WILL BE A WORK IN PROGRESS AND UPDATED OFTEN
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UPDATE 06-06-2010
ACCORDING TO ADMIRAL ALLEN IN CHARGE OF COAST GUARD OPERATIONS
They are thinking a pragmatic approach is probably wise. They have now found oil covered birds dead in Texas. He also goes on to say that trying to capture more oil and gas than is currently the case may push the envelope on that contraption they are now employing. All it takes is one spool, one valve and a small chassis with eight or so nitrogen bottles plumbed into a control manifold with activating valve. ROV pulls the handle. Everybody takes a big breath. Extinction has been averted.
UPDATE 06-12-2010
I received an autoresponder email from the oil spill response website stating the following.
We appreciate you submitting your Alternative Response Technology (ART) proposal to the Horizon Support Team. This note is to inform you that we do have your information on record and will be processing it as soon as possible. You will be informed of the disposition of your recommendation following technical review.
Thank you! Horizon Support Team
UPDATE 06-13-2010
RECEIVED AUTO RESPONDER FROM THE WHITEHOUSE. "THE PRESIDENT
GETS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF EMAILS DAILY. IT WILL BE PROCESSED AS SOON
BLA BLA BLA.
I ACTUALLY DO UNDERSTAND THE MAN AND HIS STAFF HAVE A LOT ON THEIR
PLATES. IN A CRISIS SITUATION. ONE WOULD THINK MODIFICATIONS TO EMAIL
SYSTEMS OR SOMETHING COULD BE ENABLED THAT WOULD MAKE IT JUST A LITTLE EASIER TO MAKE CONTACT WITH SOMEONE OF IMPORT. ALLOW ME TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE FOR YOU. I WAS CHECKING GOOGLE NEWS UPDATES AND GOT REDIRECTED TO YAHOO. ON THE FRONT PAGE WAS A VIDEO OF AN INTERVIEW WITH KEVAN COSTNER ABOUT THIS MACHINE HE AND AN ASSOCIATE HAVE BEEN WORKING ON AND PERFECTED FOR OVER TEN YEARS. IT SEPERATES OIL FROM WATER. AND WILL BE A REAL PLAYER IN THE CLEANUP OF THE MESS.
WHAT BOILS MY BLOOD IS. HE GOES ON TO SAY THAT DOUG SUTTER. WHO'S A BP MUCKETY MUCK HAVE BEEN WORKING ON A DEAL FOR WEEKS AND BP HAS AGREED TO BUY 30 OF HIS MACHINES. THAT'S WONDERFUL. AND CAME STRAIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE NEWS I SAW TWO DAYS AGO ABOUT COSTNER REQUESTING
AND GETTING A SIT DOWN WITH A GROUP OF CONGRESSMAN AND SENATORS.
IT APPEARS THEY LIKE HIS MACHINE TOO. AND THAT AGAIN IS WONDERFUL. I'VE BEEN TRYING TO JUST GET SOMEBODY OF POWER TO LOOK AT FILE. THAT COULD STOP THIS LEAK FOR ALMOST TWO MONTHS NOW. TO NO AVAIL. HE HAS MY SINCERE BLESSING. I REALLY DO WISH HIM MUCH SUCCESS. LORD KNOWS OUR EARTH IS GOING TO NEED IT. Hmm.. MAYBE I CAN FIND A REAL FULLY FUNCTIONING EMAIL ADDRESS FOR HIM. AND THEN HE COULD PASS IT ON TO WHERE IT NEEDS TO GET TO. WHAT'S MY CHANCES?
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT.
STAY TUNED.
BP SPILL SOLUTION TWO
RON WILLISON REVISED ON 06-12-2010
Authors knowledge base and credentials.
The author uses personal first hand knowledge learned from eight years of working in the discovery and production of crude oil, natural gas and Geo thermal resources. The first five years as a rig hand. The last three years specializing in "Well Completion and Production Services. Duties included Landing Pipe/casing, setting slips, wellhead installation and pressure testing, refurbishing and testing of blow out prevention equipment and associated hardware. The installation, testing, and servicing of production tree's, and other related machinery.
THE CONCLUSIONS DRAWN ARE BASED ON THE OBSERVED ACTIONS OF B.P. THEIR CHOICE OF, AND IMPLEMENTATION OF SOLUTIONS. THE NET RESULTS. AND THE PENDING SOLUTIONS THEY INTEND TO EMPLOY. WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED UP TO THIS DATE, ARE HISTORICALLY, DOCUMENTED, MATTERS OF FACT.
Please note. The author is solely responsible for the information below.
All conclusions and statements are derived from available data at time of posting.
As new information emerges. The author will make corrections and add to as necessary.
Please check back often and post comments. If you have data you think should be included.
Send contact info.
Should anyone feel the need to dispute any of the drawn conclusions stated below. Please supply data that supports their viewpoint and the document will be corrected as needed.
UPDATE 08-06-2010
It appears BP has gotten what they have wanted. The well they gave to the WILDLIFE HABITAT FUND has been destroyed. They wasted no time pumping cement into a perfectly good well. Having left the drill pipe downhole from the explosion. assures the hole will never be opened up again. Todays news say's they will pursue the tax write off of 10 billion to off set cleanup and damage. They have not put one cent as of today into the 20 billion escrow account. And they are already seeking permission to start the "ddII" relief well no 3 that's on hold on to the reserve so they can begin production. They won. We lost. How typical.
UPDATE 08-04-2010
Well it appears BP is still playing games.
BP and the gov. have regressed again. They, for some reason that has not been disclosed. Stopped doing the kill at 2500 psi. That is stupid and makes no sense. Whatever you hear come out about this just know this. There is NO reason whatever for them to have not gone for complete well control. It works like this. The well was holding 7000 psi. It started dropping immediately which is as it should have done. So why stop at 2500 psi.? Had they pumped another 100 or so barrels of mud they could have taken it to zero. Once again we are back to the "RELIEF WELLS" and BP's desire to make sure that they get to pump cement down hole no. 1. Thereby eliminating hole number one from taking a third of the resources out of that reserve. The bastards. By leaving 2500 pounds pressure in the well they bypass the ability to drop a drill string with a fishing tool attached down hole to retrieve the drill pipe that's sitting on bottom. Because of that drill pipe a device called a "packer" or plug. can not be installed which means the BOP can not be removed and the infrastructure which would normally be installed plumbing etc. so that normal production can run it's course. Is thereby made impossible. Looks like I need to put up another youtube video. Peace
UPDATE 07-30-2010
As all should know by now. They finally shut in the well. They now have tested long enough to know that there is nothing wrong with well integrity as I predicted would be the case. The currant plan going forward is to do a static kill on the well followed up with a bottom kill and cement job. Which will seal the well up for sure. I have a two fold problem with that. It goes like this. You may remember that early on in this disaster I was pretty upset about the fact that I had concluded that because nothing that they had attempted in the way of stopping the leak would work first because they were all nonsensical plans and I stated that they were doing everything they could to keep from causing any harm to the well as they had plans to save it. Well it appears that both BP and myself have both done 180's in our thinking. Why do you suppose that is? I'll give you a hint. "WILDLIFE HABITAT ACCOUNT".
There were some people that scoffed at me when I stated in my video that it was all about the "RELIEF WELLS" I was right as rain. And here is why I say that. Those that have followed this event closely will have noticed that when the subject of killing the MC252#1 Was talked about you never heard the statments or words like "SEALING IT UP FOREVER" OR "KILLING WITH CEMENT SO THAT IT'S SHUT IN FOREVER" ETC. ETC. Those things didn't show up until after BP gave the net proceeds from MC252#1 to the American people in the form of that habitat fund. How generous was that I ask you? Well lets see. First it's now pretty much a forgone conclusion that a lot of the over hyped pressure that the well displayed early on has in fact diminished. Which means two things. One the well may not be quite the glory hole it was said to be. And two. Because BP gave away any possible profits it might generate. That well now is in direct competition with the other two they hope to take to production. One doesn't have to be the brightest kid on the block to figure out that now after all this time. We hear words like "KILL THE WELL FOREVER WITH CEMENT" and all the other ways they say the same thing that it's now to BP's advantage to do just that. How fucking sad. Especially when now that the well is properly shut in there is no reason to kill the well forever because since there is nothing wrong with it that couldn't be fixed in less than 5 days. This is all it would take. First they have to do the "STATIC KILL" with heavy mud. Once that is done they can open the well back up and drop in a drill string with an overshot fishing tool attached instead of a drill bit and retrieve the drill pipe that was left in the hole at the time the explosion happened. Once that is done they go back in the hole with a drill bit and do what is known as bottoms up sweep. Simply means flush out and unwanted stuff that may have gotten into the well as it was flowing. Rocks, sand etc. At that point Halliburton gets to do what they wanted to do In the First place before over ruled by the company man install the required plug. Once that's done The drill rig pulls off the BOP and heads off to the next well they are going to drill and a production rig comes in and completes the well properly. And the Wild life fund will actually wind up with a bunch of money in it for future use. Unfortunately that will probably not happen because BP has Admiral Allen convinced that the well needs to be killed forever. Which is simply Bullshit. One really can't blame BP too much as this mess is really cost them. One can almost feel sorry for them.. NOT!. There is no reason to destroy a perfectly good well now that they have got it shut in. Other than BP not wanting really to be as GENEROUS as that good will offering they made implied. Unless this gets to Ad. Allen, the Prez or somebody else with power to stop the cementing in of that well. on Monday. It will be too late. Simply because once they pump in cement and that drill pipe is left downhole that well will be done forever. Cement you can drill thru. Drill pipe and "BHA", means "Bottom Hole Assembly", you can not.
THIS IS THE WAY I'D LIKE TO SEE IT
FROM HERE DOWN ARE PREVIOUS POSTS AND UPDATES
CHANGING OUT BLOW OUT PREVENTION EQUIPMENT IS DONE ROUTINELY. THE ONLY THING DIFFERENT IN THIS CASE IS THAT THE WELL IS COMING AT THEM. THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF OFF SHORE WELLS. AND BOP HAS TO BE SERVICED LIKE ANY OTHER MACHINERY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ALL THE WELLS THAT SADDAM SET ON FIRE HAD TO HAVE NEW VALVES ETC. INSTALLED. THE WELLS WERE COMING AT THEM THERE TOO. THE ABOVE GROUND ENVIRONMENT WAS EXTREMELY MORE DANGEROUS BECAUSE A SPARK WOULD KILL ANYONE IN THE VICINITY. NOT SO UNDER WATER.WHAT MAKES MORE SENSE TO YOU? GET EVERYTHING READY AND IN PLACE. THEN . UNBOLT THE DAMAGED RISER PIPES ADAPTER FLANGE FROM THE TOP BOP FLANGE. THEN LOWER SPOOL/VALVE ASSEMBLY WITH VALVES OPEN SO THE OIL AND GAS COMING CAN PASS ON THRU ALLOWING INSTALLATION OF ASSEMBLY. THEN CLOSING IN THE WELL COMPLETELY. DO THE MATH. SIX OR SEVEN HOURS OF WIDE OPEN FLOW INTO THE OCEAN. OR 2 OR 3 MONTHS AT THE CURRENT RATE OF OIL AND GAS DISCHARGING INTO OUR OCEAN. ONE ALSO MUST REALIZE THAT ALL THE STUFF THEY ARE DOING ON THE SURFACE AS AN ADAPTATION TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT CONTRAPTION IS BOTH UNNECESSARY AS WELL AS DANGEROUS. FINALLY ONE HAS TO REMEMBER THAT SHOULD A BIG STORM COME. THEY WILL HAVE TO DISCONNECT AND RUN FOR COVER. WHICH WILL ADD DAYS IF NOT WEEKS TO UNCHECKED OIL AND GAS DISCHARGE INTO THE SEA. THAT IS NOT TOLERABLE. IF YOU READ THIS AND AGREE. PLEASE COPY AND FORWARD TO EVERYONE, BP OFFICIALS HAVE TO KNOW THAT SOONER OR LATER QUESTIONS AS TO WHY THE ABOVE SOLUTION WAS NOT UTILIZED WITH IN THE WEEK FOLLOWING THE EXPLOSION WILL BE RAISED.
When they cut the damaged riser pipe out of the way. "ALL" of the nuts and bolts that secure the riser pipes "ADAPTER FLANGE. To the top BOP FLANGE, were exposed, and now completely accessible.
So what does this mean? It means that there was absolutely not one single reason why they should have proceeded on with their latest failed invention.!! That is still as I write this, update, barfing into our ocean. It means that this leak could have been SHUT IN within 24 hours of that time, had they chose to do it the right way. It's like this. There are multiple devices that contribute to the make up the "Blow Out Prevention Equipment". There are many configurations. That, when combined are referred to as. "THE STACK" In essence most all can be thought of as a type of valve. Except one. In an emergency it's purpose is to cut off the drill pipe so the the valves above it can then be closed. Thus making it possible to shut in the well. The other types used are PIPE RAMS, BLIND RAMS, ANNULARS, CHOKE TYPES AND GATE VALVES. When needed and there is drill pipe in the hole both the Annular and the Pipe Rams can be closed and will seal around the pipe and close in the well. If no drill pipe. Then the Blind Rams are used. Usually two different valve control systems are used, and generally with multiple locations to activate the valves. System one is hydraulic fluids under high pressure. System two is primarily for backup. Normally used if system one fails, and is Nitrogen stored in high pressure cylinders, or bottles as they are called. It should be noted. That because of where they were in the well completion process. No drill pipe should have been left in the hole. I did however on two different occasions hear somebody talking about the drill pipe being partially responsible for the diamond saw blade issues. I'll allow for both possibilities. I'm thinking it was just a semantics problem.
FOLLIES IN THE GULF
Brought to you by British Petroleum
ACT ONE
During the course of a deep water well completion, Somethings amiss. The casing has been landed and the cement has been pumped down the hole to seal the outside of the well casing to the well bore. An alarm sounds. Oh no! Were taking a kick. "Shut in the well" somebody yells out. Floor hands start running to their assigned locations as practiced many times in safety drills. Each having a job to perform should the need arise. Somethings wrong!! Too late..An oil and gas mixture has made it's way to the rig floor and found a spark. 11 hands are missing. The remaining people are told to abandon the rig. Fortunately there happens to be a ship there taking on drilling fluids to be transferred to another location for future use. All remaining personnel are transported to safety. After almost two days of futile attempts to bring the raging fire under control. The massive drilling platform topples over and sinks. It now rests some distance away from the well hole it was positioned above, and the riser pipe that connected it to the well has torn away, and is spewing oil and gas from at least three locations. One flow is atop the Blowout Prevention Equipment. The other two further away from the well head, where the riser was torn open. This is not good. The call goes out. A massive mobilization begins. The Coast Guard, high up company officials, state, local, and federal officials converge on the Gulf area. As well as the media. A Disaster response web site gets thrown up. Volunteers start arriving. Hopes are high.
Then the govt. shuts down some commercial fishing areas. Which will in many cases be the proverbial straw to those that have not recovered from Katrina and or the current economic train wreck. Congress begins hearings. The primary actors are summoned to Washington D.C. Where they then sit around and blame each other. Providing drama and comic relief for some of us. Angst and dismay for others.
B.P. Officials announce they have a plan to slow and or maybe even stop the pollution of one of the spills by capturing the oil/gas with the use of the, "upside down funnel dome device". This device they said had worked in the past. But never at depths of 5000 plus feet. They then hastened to add that, "Were not sure if it would work". Also stated at the same news briefing, was an approximate time line required to finish repairs, modifications, and then transport of the device to location. The plan was to lower this device to the seabed, and cover one of the flows in the mangled up riser pipe, that was away from the wellhead. They would then attach a riser pipe to the top of the device, and rely on the gas and oils lighter than water property's to create an upward flow. Which would eventually result in its capture and placement into an awaiting tanker on the surface. It was a good show. The majority of people bought into it, and maybe some slept a little better for a couple of weeks. And that's o.k.. But alas. Mother nature stepped in and said, "nope, not gonna happen." and clogged the riser pipe with a gas hydrates combination, which by the way is a bomb looking for a match unto itself. The net result of that was officials and rig hands alike. Could all breathe easier now, knowing they were not going be working in the very same environment, that blew up TransOcean's rig in the first place. That said. There still needed to be some kind of activity that would indicate somebody was doing something that would fix this problem. So they went through the motions anyway. When they held the press conference to announce defeat. They advised that the next 48 hours would be spent devising another plan. And noted any suggestions coming their way, via the "Spill Response Site". Would be evaluated.
END OF ACT ONE.
ACT TWO
While everything mentioned above was taking place. Some interesting behind the scenes processes were also transpiring. Most notable would be the fast tracking and granting of permissions to launch two additional holes immediately. When this news was announced to the general public. The stated purpose was that if none of the plans to stop the flows were successful. They would hit the zone and begin producing the reserve in order to bleed off the pressure that was driving the offending well. The term they used was "Relief Holes". B.P. Officials requested one. The US GOVT. insisted on two. Redundancy was the reasoning. There are a couple of problems with that notion The first being that should everything go as planned, and no serious hiccups are encountered along the way. The time line for completion would be sometime in august. If hole No1 is still puking death and destruction into our precious ocean at that time. You might as well go ahead and stick a fork in it. Because by that time, we will all be floating in oil. For those of you that have no knowledge of the way of things in the oil field. It's common for some wells to maintain high internal pressures for years. , Even with many additional holes all tapping the same reserve. It should also be noted that while the processes that started off the creation of the natural gas and crude oil happened eons ago. Those processes continue on to this day. Think fermentation, This particular well is producing both natural gas and oil, and now 40 plus days into this mess. The pressure still shows no signs of weakening.
The second problem I have with the above stated notion is that while hearings are taking place in D.C. And accusations of poor work ethics or non performance are leveled at federal employees, regarding authorizations. One has to wonder why two more holes are being drilled as we speak, into the very same high pressure, high volume zone, that proved to be unmanageable in the first place. "WITHOUT A PLAN TO FIX THIS KIND OF A PROBLEM IF ENCOUNTERED AGAIN". Would it not be plausible for one to conclude that if such a plan existed the directors of this production would adopt it to resolve the currant crisis? How often have good old fashioned, reasoned, common sense, thought processes been sidelined? In favor of knee jerk, emotionally charged, reactionary decisions, which have almost always come back to bite us on the ass. Do we need another leaking hole to compound our problems. Bad things are said to come in three's. Lets do a count. Number 1. Volcano up north. Not behaving as historic records say it should be. While it arrived pretty much right on time. it's now 180 degrees out on its shutting down cycle. Then we have the currant gulf mess. Can we afford a third?
INTERMISSION
While you were away getting some popcorn etc. B.P. officials held a press briefing and notified us that they were using a chemical designed to break up the oil in order prevent it from reaching the surface and causing harm to the local wild life habitat. This product would cause the oil to fall harmlessly to the seabed where over time, micro organisms would make it go away by eating it. Does any part of the previous statement seem logical to you? While trying to prevent damage on the surface to fisheries and wild life habitat is a noble idea. We can at least clean that up and restore it, even if it takes decades. To attack our food chain in the womb is madness. How do they propose to clean up and fix the birth place of the oceans food chain? When it's over 5000 feet under water and hundreds of square miles in scope.
They then went on to advise us about the plan called "THE INSERTION". Well it's about time. Everyone knows you can't make a good movie without some sex involved. So what they did was put together, yet another riser type pipe, with a 90 degree bend at the bottom, and a short additional length of pipe extending out from the bend. This pipe was smaller in diameter than the damaged riser laying on the sea floor. Then using one of the ROV'S on location, they guided it into the leaking riser, and viola. A new world record set. "Robot Assisted Sex" at 5000 feet below sea level. Life sure is grand. A press briefing followed, and we were advised that because of pressure related issues. Lady riser was not appreciating Lord risers intrusion and pushed him out. Feeling rejected Lord riser rested and after awhile resolved to have another go at her. "Success" :). The observers on the surface are all happy now. They have now tasted, while limited in scope the thrill of victory. There was actually oil and gas making it's way to the surface and being removed from the water. But alas once again mother nature stepped in and said. We can't allow more loss of life here, and risk another explosion. Whereby using the same tactic as before. She caused the riser pipe to seal shut with the methane/ice combo. Having tasted victory, The directors and producers of this soon to be hit video on Youtube. Feeling the heat from high places brought about by the damage being caused, by over 30 days of seeming impotence. Rolled out the "TOP KILL" abomination. After all. The show must still go on. When I heard the details of this plan. I sat in shock for over an hour. Then the bells went off. The light bulbs lit up, and reality walked up and socked me in the nose. I got it. I understood why nothing they had attempted had even a remote chance of working.
"THE GRAND FINALLY"
There is an old adage that goes something like this.
“IF YOU CAN'T DAZZLE THEM WITH BRILLIANCE.
BAFFLE THEM WITH BULLSHIT”
____________________________________________________________________
Having spent the last eight years of my working career in the oil fields. The last three, specializing in well completion and production services. I, upon seeing that drilling platform explode knew instantly that this was serious. As time went by and the details of what happened emerged and without even having to see the news videos. I knew the firefighting attempts were in vain, and the rig was going to sink. At that time there was still speculation that an attempt was made to shut in the well. Had that happened the fire would have run out of fuel, and petered out long before doing enough damage to sink the rig. I knew it was just a matter of time. At that moment I started formulating a plan to stop the leak that loomed on the horizon. With data provided by the press. Info gathered by reporters of people like the skipper of the mud transport ship. And rig hands that reported lost circulation problems with the hole. As well as the official news briefings. I was able to figure out where they were in the well completion process. Armed with good picture of the overall situation. A simple, quick, temporary solution, came to mind. Only one sentence required a modification After the rig sank. I spent the next two days researching the hardware and materials, that would be required. Those additions were made to the document, and I set about trying to get it to one of the directors running the show down there in the gulf. Stupid me. What was I thinking? Once again, beat up by my own idealistic, optimistic, attitudes, something that should have been simple, has now proven to be quite a challenge. I am pretty even keeled, and for the most part very hard to anger. When I went to the B.P. Oil Spill Response website, and clicked the, "submit suggestions button", to upload my solution. I was awakened by another sock to my nose. Now I'm getting mad. I discovered that my four page, well researched document, with pictures embedded, instructions with finite attention paid to detail, covering every aspect the process could not be uploaded to that, crippled, limited, worthless site. Because it exceeded the "200" word max limit. And needless to say. There was no "UPLOAD A PICTURE" or "ATTACH A FILE" button. That should have gave me a clue as to how serious they are about fixing this problem. I missed it tho and undaunted backed out of the site believing that I could obtain a real email address, for somebody that was even close to somebody in charge. Well to reduce the diatribe and get to the info you really need. Suffice it to say that as of this moment 5:30 am Sunday morning May 30th 2010 and after quite literally, hundreds of emails sent out to anybody I felt was even remotely connected to the management of this mess in the gulf.. I have yet to receive any kind response or indication that my solution has reached them. So now onto the ugly truth.
Conclusion number one.
Not one single plan they have put into motion would have impaired their ability to salvage the offending hole.
In addition. As of this posting. 05-31-2010. The two currant plans they are going to attempt are also without bite and destined to fail. Plan A, cut the damaged riser pipe at the top of the BOP where it is bent over and by no reasonable means perfectly round. Then pull it out of the way. They will then lower down a new revised smaller version of the previous "DOME" Type device that failed. Attach it to the top of the BOP, and let the well pump itself into an awaiting tanker on the surface. In a perfect world this could be done. 5000 below sea level, with 1400 plus pounds per square inch of pressure, pushing oil and gas out of the very location they have to make that cut, I would give a five percent chance of success to. In the event they make that happen. The next phase is also, while possible, loaded with logistical problems. The cut could be no more than a few inches above the BOP flange surface. It would also have to be centered, so as not to interfere with the mating and securing to of the new capping device. Then one has to consider both the visibility issues, as well as the fact that all this is being done remotely with robotics and cameras. While doable, daunting would be an understatement.
Plan B of solutions on the drawing board, destined for implementation. Same as plan A. But instead of installing the capturing device. A secondary BOP would be attached atop the broken one. Then activated from the surface to close in the well. Same logistical problems as plan A. With the exception that it will be easier to get it centered over flowing hole, and attached to the existing one, due to it's mass and weight. Everything done and projected to date speaks to the heart of the matter. There are simple, quick, and even cheap ways that could have, and should have, been employed to bring this disaster to an end. They know of these options. But will not even mention any of them. Why you ask? Because all would cause enough damage to the hole. To negate their reckless ambitions to save it. All one needs to do is crunch the numbers. As of 05-30-2010. 970 million in currant mitigation costs. Lets for arguments sake be liberal and project 5 billion more for lawsuits cleanup and other expenses. Add another just for good measure. Then include1 billion already spent drilling this hole. So lets call it 10 billion dollars in the red. If in fact this does drag out until August. It will probably be safe to add another billion per month in related costs. Eco damage, cleanup, response, etc. Now lets look at the flip side. First you need to understand that directional drilling is very accurate these days. They can hit the a target within inches. So by stalling long enough to allow the first of the rigs headed for that target to get there, and install a plug, They can save the hole. One might consider it a wash. But not so. The minute that flow is stopped. B.P. will set about replacing the broken Blowout Prevention Equipment. Rig no.2 will pull back far enough to change drilling direction and hit the desired zone. Well completion will happen and the process will work it's way to production. Rig 3 will alter course and hit the zone and completion and production will be the end result. So what does this mean? It means that by around mid September they will have not one, but three holes producing around 25 or 30 thousand barrels or more a day EACH. Do The math. Don't forget to calculate the bonus they got by having two of those holes already in production at least six months before it could have happened under the normal jump thru all the hoops circumstances. And last but not least. Add to the plus tally the profits from the "Natural Gas" that also appears abundant in this reserve. For those that would not know it's common to get both resources from the same well. They hit the jackpot on this one. It sure is a wonderful world huh?
And finally I get to where insult is added to injury.
The eye opener.---> "TOP KILL" <---wrong name... right name--->BOTTOM KILL<--- They knew without a doubt that there was not chance in hell that it would do anything positive. It's quite simple to understand. Located on the sides of the non working BOP are two inlet ports. with "FITTINGS "or "Pipe Flanges".. If, and only if, the well is "SHUT IN" Will they do as their name suggests and kill or choke off the well. If the gas and oil is stationary, the heavy mud will sink to the bottom, pile up and prevent anything below it from rising. Try this. Go out into your yard. and remove the nozzle from your garden hose. Then turn on the water. Which by the way will give you at best, 60 pounds per square inch of pressure. Hold the hose out in front of you pointed upward and try to get something even as heavy as a lead bullet, a small fishing sinker, or perhaps even a small solid gold nugget to fall down into the hose, while that water is running. It's not rocket science. Did you know that a drilling company even digging a hole on dry land can be heavily fined by the govt. for allowing a drilling fluids spill of only a few barrels to hit the ground. Drilling fluids are mixtures of assorted minerals that are turned into a mud like consistency with diesel fuel. Of recent years there has been an effort to switch to biodegradable substitutes. We can hope that was the case here. "The show must go on" I am still having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that, they went ahead with that madness and actually pumped 30 thousand plus barrels of drilling fluids into what is essentially a well lubricated wide open blowout
preventer, knowing in advance that it would get pushed right back out the top, to the nearest opening and directly into our already trashed ocean. It's got me so pissed off. I want to kick the nearest tree or go break something. That is just so wrong. When the dust settles BRITISH PETROLEUM will have more than just a black eye. In the hopes that some BP official might actually read this Rant, That which is typed below is for you!!
I AM REALLY PISSED OFF. YOU COULD HAVE STOPPED THIS IN A WEEK. WHY HAVE YOU LET THIS CONTINUE? WHAT ARE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NOT BEING TOLD? INQUIRING MINDS WANT TO KNOW.
.
IF THE CONCLUSIONS DRAWN ON OBSERVATIONS OF THAT WHICH HAS TAKEN PLACE TO DATE ARE IN ERROR. THE ONLY OTHER CONCLUSION THAT AFTER SIMPLE GREED IS REMOVED FROM THE EQUATION IS THAT EVEN DARKER FORCES ARE IN PLAY HERE.
SEE BELOW
It is my considered opinion that from the outset, everything resting on the seabed should have been declared and treated like a crime scene. Since questions about the integrity of the BOP have
been raised. Everything connected to it is evidence. That includes the controls that
are still attached to the submerged drilling platform. As well as the systems
employed to activate the various parts of the BOP. Since it appears
that none of the individual parts worked. Only three
possibilities are left. Either they were not
activated, everything failed at once,
and/or operator error. I
would have you
consider the following
Current state of our economy
All current drilling operations halted.
All applications for new drill permits on hold.
What caused the supposedly bullet proof BOP to fail?
Why were the people who's duties require their presence on
the rig floor during what is one of the most critical processes. Absent?
Why did the company man deviate from the government approved drilling plan?
Despite arguments from Rig manager and Halliburton regarding the setting of a plug.
IT APPEARS, THIS WILL BE A WORK IN PROGRESS AND UPDATED OFTEN
_________________________________________________________________
UPDATE 06-06-2010
ACCORDING TO ADMIRAL ALLEN IN CHARGE OF COAST GUARD OPERATIONS
They are thinking a pragmatic approach is probably wise. They have now found oil covered birds dead in Texas. He also goes on to say that trying to capture more oil and gas than is currently the case may push the envelope on that contraption they are now employing. All it takes is one spool, one valve and a small chassis with eight or so nitrogen bottles plumbed into a control manifold with activating valve. ROV pulls the handle. Everybody takes a big breath. Extinction has been averted.
UPDATE 06-12-2010
I received an autoresponder email from the oil spill response website stating the following.
We appreciate you submitting your Alternative Response Technology (ART) proposal to the Horizon Support Team. This note is to inform you that we do have your information on record and will be processing it as soon as possible. You will be informed of the disposition of your recommendation following technical review.
Thank you! Horizon Support Team
UPDATE 06-13-2010
RECEIVED AUTO RESPONDER FROM THE WHITEHOUSE. "THE PRESIDENT
GETS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF EMAILS DAILY. IT WILL BE PROCESSED AS SOON
BLA BLA BLA.
I ACTUALLY DO UNDERSTAND THE MAN AND HIS STAFF HAVE A LOT ON THEIR
PLATES. IN A CRISIS SITUATION. ONE WOULD THINK MODIFICATIONS TO EMAIL
SYSTEMS OR SOMETHING COULD BE ENABLED THAT WOULD MAKE IT JUST A LITTLE EASIER TO MAKE CONTACT WITH SOMEONE OF IMPORT. ALLOW ME TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE FOR YOU. I WAS CHECKING GOOGLE NEWS UPDATES AND GOT REDIRECTED TO YAHOO. ON THE FRONT PAGE WAS A VIDEO OF AN INTERVIEW WITH KEVAN COSTNER ABOUT THIS MACHINE HE AND AN ASSOCIATE HAVE BEEN WORKING ON AND PERFECTED FOR OVER TEN YEARS. IT SEPERATES OIL FROM WATER. AND WILL BE A REAL PLAYER IN THE CLEANUP OF THE MESS.
WHAT BOILS MY BLOOD IS. HE GOES ON TO SAY THAT DOUG SUTTER. WHO'S A BP MUCKETY MUCK HAVE BEEN WORKING ON A DEAL FOR WEEKS AND BP HAS AGREED TO BUY 30 OF HIS MACHINES. THAT'S WONDERFUL. AND CAME STRAIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE NEWS I SAW TWO DAYS AGO ABOUT COSTNER REQUESTING
AND GETTING A SIT DOWN WITH A GROUP OF CONGRESSMAN AND SENATORS.
IT APPEARS THEY LIKE HIS MACHINE TOO. AND THAT AGAIN IS WONDERFUL. I'VE BEEN TRYING TO JUST GET SOMEBODY OF POWER TO LOOK AT FILE. THAT COULD STOP THIS LEAK FOR ALMOST TWO MONTHS NOW. TO NO AVAIL. HE HAS MY SINCERE BLESSING. I REALLY DO WISH HIM MUCH SUCCESS. LORD KNOWS OUR EARTH IS GOING TO NEED IT. Hmm.. MAYBE I CAN FIND A REAL FULLY FUNCTIONING EMAIL ADDRESS FOR HIM. AND THEN HE COULD PASS IT ON TO WHERE IT NEEDS TO GET TO. WHAT'S MY CHANCES?
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT.
STAY TUNED.
RON WILLISON REVISED ON 06-12-2010
Authors knowledge base and credentials.
The author uses personal first hand knowledge learned from eight years of working in the discovery and production of crude oil, natural gas and Geo thermal resources. The first five years as a rig hand. The last three years specializing in "Well Completion and Production Services. Duties included Landing Pipe/casing, setting slips, wellhead installation and pressure testing, refurbishing and testing of blow out prevention equipment and associated hardware. The installation, testing, and servicing of production tree's, and other related machinery.
THE CONCLUSIONS DRAWN ARE BASED ON THE OBSERVED ACTIONS OF B.P. THEIR CHOICE OF, AND IMPLEMENTATION OF SOLUTIONS. THE NET RESULTS. AND THE PENDING SOLUTIONS THEY INTEND TO EMPLOY. WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED UP TO THIS DATE, ARE HISTORICALLY, DOCUMENTED, MATTERS OF FACT.
Please note. The author is solely responsible for the information below.
All conclusions and statements are derived from available data at time of posting.
As new information emerges. The author will make corrections and add to as necessary.
Please check back often and post comments. If you have data you think should be included.
Should anyone feel the need to dispute any of the drawn conclusions stated below. Please supply data that supports their viewpoint and the document will be corrected as needed.
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